Outright market changes after Premier League gameweek 14


Liverpool’s 7-0 thrashing of Crystal Palace prompted the Reds to regain their odds-on status at the top of the Premier League title market. A quote of 10/11 matches their price from late September when they were judged to have made a much better start to the campaign than pre-season favourites Manchester City.

Going into the weekend it was City that were challenged to earn the respect of the compilers with a tricky fixture away at high-flying Southampton. Pep Guardiola’s side were a bigger price than their closest title rivals to earn three points on Saturday.

They must have spent the warm-up for that match informing each other every time there was a goal at Selhurst Park.

Both sides at the top of the betting earned the same number of points on Saturday, but the manner of Liverpool’s win takes them back to a seasonal low price in the market.

Pep Guardiola’s side remain steady around 9/4, but we have new third-favourites this weekend – City’s neighbours Manchester United.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men have quietly overtaken Chelsea and Tottenham in the title market having taken 19 points from their last possible 21 in the league.

They reached a seasonal low of 9/1 for a brief moment on Monday before Chelsea’s win over West Ham nudged them back out to 10/1. That price is exactly half of their pre-season quote and a very long way off the 50/1 being offered after their disastrous home hammering from Tottenham in early October.

And what of Tottenham? Their price graph has been equally topsy-turvy.

A week that saw them take just one point from a possible nine, losing to Liverpool and Leicester in the process, led to a price drift of 5/1 out to 20/1.

A minimum of three wins in those games would be needed, otherwise Arteta could lose his job faster than Arsenal fans can Google ‘quickest route to Rotherham’.

Jose Mourinho’s side are learning how unforgiving this market and competition is. Chelsea had experienced the same a week earlier with defeats to Everton and Wolves.

A measly two points from a possible 21 has prompted real speculation that Arsenal could be in a relegation battle. Could they be about to lose their top-flight status for the first time in over a century?

A one-goal defeat away at Everton means Mikel Arteta’s team are now just 20/1 for the drop, from a seasonal high of 500/1. They sit four points ahead of the relegation zone with a tough fixture at home to Chelsea next.

Anything in that game will be a bonus, because they then have a run that could have a huge say in whether this is a minor scare or a survival crisis.

Games against the current 17th, 19th, 13th and 12th-placed teams in the table follow Chelsea, in that order.

A minimum of three wins in those games would be needed, otherwise Arteta could lose his job faster than Arsenal fans can Google ‘quickest route to Rotherham’.

In previous articles I did mention that the North London side had the cushion of far worse teams below them in the table.

The sight of Burnley and Fulham improving, then, will be a worry. Even West Bromwich Albion and Sheffield United have reasons to be optimistic.

From the Baggies’ point of view, they might say the game against Aston Villa came too early for Big Sam to work his magic. The Blades will point to a decent performance and result away at Brighton.

The market still has Chris Wilder’s team heavily odds-on at 2/11 to drop, with West Brom 2/9 after that heavy defeat on Sunday in which they registered a seasonal low expected goals figure. Fulham are 4/6 for the drop with Burnley nicely easing to 2/1. Brighton and Newcastle continue to shorten, both now at 4/1.

The busy Christmas and New Year schedule will likely make or break a lot of title, top four and survival hopes.

Compilers will want to see if Manchester United justify a sloping title price. If they lose at Leicester on Boxing Day, they will be filed as flat-track bullies. The Foxes would move into at least the top five in the title betting if they were to win that game. That match at the King Power is the one to watch at the top of the table.

At the bottom of the table it’s the game at the Amex on December 29. Brighton and Arsenal know the loser in that game will be markedly shortening up in the relegation betting.

Visit Betway’s football betting page.



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