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Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Sunday’s Super Bowl is a rematch of a week 12 meeting between these two teams in Tampa Bay, which the Chiefs won 27-24.
That victory came right in the middle of a 10-game winning streak, and the Chiefs’ only defeat since October remains a week 17 game against the Chargers, when they rested their starters having already locked up the top seed in the AFC.
Kansas City have been very impressive in the playoffs so far, beating the Browns 22-17 before thrashing the dangerous Bills 38-24, while the Buccaneers have won three straight road games against Washington, New Orleans and Green Bay.
The Bucs almost threw away a 28-10 lead against the Packers a fortnight ago, though, and were somewhat fortunate to only lose by three when they played Kansas City in the regular season as they were outgained by over 110 yards.
It’s hard to count Tampa Bay out considering quarterback Tom Brady has won six Super Bowls, but the Chiefs have been the best team in the league all season and have looked as strong as ever in the playoffs.
Under 56 points
Most people are expecting fireworks on Sunday given the strength of the two offenses on display, and as a result the total is the third-highest in Super Bowl history.
Considering just five of the last 20 Super Bowls went over 56 points, though, it’s best to back the under here.
These games are typically more cagey than expected, and these two defences have both been at their very best over the past few weeks.
The total was also 56 points when these teams met in the regular season and that one went under, too, with 51 scored.
Tyreek Hill over 93.5 receiving yards
Hill torched the Buccaneers for an incredible 269 yards on 13 catches with three touchdowns when these teams played each other during the regular season.
Tampa Bay simply didn’t have an answer for ‘Cheetah’, and although they’ll likely pay him a huge amount of attention on Sunday it’s hard to see how they’re going to slow him down.
In the NFC Championship game a fortnight ago, Green Bay Packers receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling twice beat the Bucs for deep catches, and that’s an ominous sign for them ahead of another meeting with the league’s premier deep threat.
Mike Evans to score the first touchdown
The Chiefs went behind early on against the Bills in their last game and it’s worth backing Evans to get into the endzone first for the Buccaneers on Sunday.
The wide receiver has been Brady’s favourite target near the goal line all season, scoring 13 touchdowns in the regular season and another two in the playoffs.
Evans scored the first TD in each of Tampa Bay’s last two games and looks a great bet again here.
Patrick Mahomes to be named Super Bowl MVP
As fun as it is to look for an outlandish MVP pick, this Super Bowl is all about the quarterbacks.
In a meeting of the greatest QB of all time against arguably the most talented, there’s almost no way anyone other than Brady or Mahomes wins MVP here.
Given that the Chiefs are odds-on favourites, Mahomes looks well worth a bet.
He was the obvious MVP choice when they won last year, and the case for him to go back-to-back will only be strengthened if the Chiefs’ other elite offensive players – namely Hill and Travis Kelce – have a big night.
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